Some of Our Challenges

Climate change impacts

According to the CSIRO, the sea level of the G21 region is predicted to rise by up to 55cm by 2070 if sufficient measures to minimise climate change are not undertaken globally. The projected sea-level rise, modified ocean circulation patterns and increases in the frequency of extreme events will affect the building and erosion of the coast, and create increased incidence of coastal flooding.

The average temperature of the G21 region is expected to increase by up to 1.4ºC by 2030 and up to 4.3ºC by 2070. This increase would be beyond the tolerance of much of the indigenous vegetation and fauna of the region, causing significant implications for our economy, particularly agriculture, aquaculture and tourism related industries. A temperature rise of this order would also have health implications for our increasing and ageing population.

Economy in transition

The economy of the G21 region is in transition. Historically Geelong port was the export hub for wool and other agriculture produce of the western and north-western districts of Victoria and southern NSW. Geelong naturally became a manufacturing city, processing the wool, grain and other produce prior to export. Over decades other forms of manufacturing - such as the automotive, aluminium and petrochemical sectors - also centred on the region, making it a major manufacturing hub for south-eastern Australia.

However, of more recent times, the changing face of international trade, and a range of economic forces beyond the region's control, have combined to put pressure on large local manufacturers. The G21 region economy has therefore been transitioning away from dependence on a large-manufacturer base, towards sectors such as high-tech manufacture, scientific research, education, tourism and general support services.

The challenge for the region is to manage the transititon gradually, over an extended period of time, and in a way that causes least economic and social hardship, especially among those people who have depended on manufacturing for their livelihood, either directly or indirectly.

Our population is growing and will be significantly older than the rest of Australia.

In 2006, the residential population was 259,000. By 2051, the total regional population is expected to be at least 400,000(DSE). The G21 region has an aspirational target of 500,000 by 2051 so it can support higher-level services and achieve a threshold size more attractive to future growth industries. The population increase will be driven by migration to the region.
The birth rate will remain approximately the same whilst the death rate will increase by around 35% between now and 2031(DSE).
People 65 years and older will make up 38% of the population compared to 29% for Australia. There will be 14,000 fewer people in the 0 to 44 age group by 2051.
85% of households will have only 1 or 2 people and there will be an additional 57,094 households in the G21 region by 2031.(DSE)
Population growth will further increase demand on the region’s water resources, waste management practices and available land for housing, industry and employment.

There is significant community social disadvantage and a large gap between rich and poor.

There are 10 postcodes in the region rated as “disadvantaged” by the Jesuit Study 2003 with a further seven rated as a "degree of disadvantage”. This is an increase between 1996 and 2001.
70% of the region is more likely to be categorised as “disadvantaged” compared to 30% “advantaged” demonstrating a wide economic disparity.
Employment and incomes make up a component of the disadvantage index with the most vulnerable often reliant on jobs in lower skilled areas that are under pressure from low global wage levels.
Public transport use within the region is less than 1%, which is significantly below the State average. Sustainable access to services for an increasingly older population is a significant challenge.

The region rates lower than average in the majority of health related indicators.

According to the Victorian Population Health Survey 2005; compared to the State average the G21 region has:

7.7% more females and 3% more males who are overweight/obese.
15.4% more females in the 18-24 year age range who are overweight/obese.
31% more females in the 18-24 year age range who don’t eat the daily recommended serves of fruit.
8% more 18-24 aged people who are smokers.
2-3% higher reported mental health problems across all sections of the community, and
2.2% more women, 4.6% more men and 37.5% more young people (18-24 y.o.) who are likely to be exposed to a weekly risk of short-term alcohol related harm.

Source : http://www.health.vic.gov.au/healthstatus/downloads/vphs/vphs2005.pdf

The region’s education levels are lower than the average for Victoria and Australia in all but the trades.

There is lower than average representation of people with post-secondary qualifications, university degree or higher. There is lower than average representation of associate professionals, professionals and managers.
Skills gap analysis shows significant gaps in current industry needs. One in four children leaves school early in the G21 region (Local Learning and Employment Networks (LLEN) 2006).
73% of 20-24 year olds in the G21 region have completed year 12 or equivalent. The State Government has set a target of 90% by 2010 (LLEN, 2006). 35% of students in the region go to university (LLEN, 2006), and of these around 30% drop out by the end of the first year.
The most common employment outcomes for school leavers not in further education or training are sales assistant, food service/hospitality, administration, building and construction (LLEN, 2006).

The region’s $8.14 billion economy is forecast to grow at annual rates lower than Victoria and Australia.

Monash University forecasts industry GDP growth to 2013 to be 3% per annum, which is below Victoria at 3.5% and Australia at 3.4%. Over 20 years, this 0.5% downward forecast equates to ‘losses’ of $850m in GRP, 6,600 jobs and $450m in wages. Manufacturing and associated supply chain industries are most affected and currently account for 16.21% of GRP and 11.2% of jobs.

Whilst retail is strong as an employer at 18.54% of jobs or 11.05% of GRP, it is overrepresented at 5.9% of our industry structure compared to 4.7% nationally. The higher than average retail employment returns lower than average wages and multipliers.

Monash forecasts an increasing gap between average annual population growth of 1.0% and employment growth of 0.7%. 55,000 new jobs will need to be generated in the region by 2050 to accommodate population growth.

Unemployment in the region was 1.25% higher than the State average over the past 4 years. Youth unemployment for the same period is 2.5 times higher than the State average.

Current and forecast growth is placing pressure on the environment.

Population growth will require residential land of between 5,000 and 7,000 hectares by 2051 depending on housing densities.

Current residential development densities across the region are approximately 10 dwellings per hectare whilst other benchmark regions are 15 dwellings per hectare or above. Currently only 1.38% of new dwellings are achieved through urban infill (resubdivision). If this pattern continues, supply and demand analysis shows that the availability of designated residential land will be exhausted by 2031.

Current pathways for innovation and collaboration are inconsistent and short term focused.

The region boasts many organisations dedicated to addressing the challenges we face, but their efforts are hampered by inadequate:

Consistent regional indicators.
Strategic co-ordination of regional priorities.
Long term, whole-of-government support.
Funding and resources, and
Policies and procedures for acknowledging and rewarding effort.

Click here to read more in the Geelong Region Plan

Some of Our Strengths

Deakin University and The Gordon.

The presence of Deakin University and The Gordon not only provides education opportunities for our community, it is also a source of economic and creative vitality. For example, the Geelong Technology Precinct and the Innovative Regions Centre drive the development and dissemination of innovative practices that will underpin our future economy. The Medical School is training medical staff focused on the special needs and demands of regional areas.

Avalon Airport.

Avalon Airport is a major privately-owned infrastructure asset in the region, particularly given the success and growing importance of touirsm and the sustained growth of population in the G21 region and the Geelong-Melbourne urban corridor. The airport has the potential to be a major passenger and freight hub serving south-eastern Australia. The airport is currently underutilised but is seeking to expand the number and range of operators and flights, espeically for international routes. The State Government has provided in-principle support for a rail link from the airport to Lara to connect to the main Geelong-Melbourne rail line to the airport.

Geelong Port infrastructure.

The Port of Geelong is Victoria's largest bulk sea port. Expansion opportunities exist to service the growing demand for shipping agriculture products such as wood chips, grain and fertiliser. The Geelong Ring Road construction has opened up improved access opportunities to and from the port. Corio Bay, on which Geelong is located, offers excellent potential as as a cruise ship destination, bringing tourists to the G21 region's doorstep.

Research capabilities.

The presence of two CSIRO research facilities, Deakin University and Barwon Health provides the region with one of the highest concentrations of researchers in the country. It provides the basis of research capacity that can be readily expanded, such as to the high-tech fields of carbon fibre, biotechnology and similar emerging growth technologies.

Aquaculture and marine industry.

The G21 region's extensive and pristine coastline provides ideal conditions for aquaculture industries, such as mussel and oyster farming. Existing research facilities in this field, and existing infrastructure, make it a potential multi-million-dollar growth industry for the region.

Tourism infrastructure.

The G21 region is blessed with natural and man-made assets such as the Surf Coast, the Great Ocean Raod, the rolling green hills of the Golden Plains, rain forests in the Otways, wine and specialty food growing areas across the region, historic early settlement and mining towns and much more, all of which draw visitors to the region year round. The Great Ocean Road alone attracts more than 2.5 million people each year.

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