Population & Forecasting
The G21 region's 'estimated residential population' at June 2012 was 287,710 people (see 'Economic Profile' link below for breakdowns of the Australian Bureau of Statistics data).
Population forecasts prepared by Department of Planning and Community Development indicate that most of the growth in the G21 region to 2026 will occur in the Surf Coast and Golden Plains Shires, with the City of Greater Geelong also contributing a significant proportion to the future growth.
Growth Projections are as follows:
- Surf Coast – East (3.0% pa)
- South Barwon-Inner (2.6% pa)
- Golden Plains – South East (2.3% pa)
- Greater Geelong – Pt B (Bellarine Peninsula – 1.7% pa)
- Greater Geelong – Pt C (1.3% pa).
This growth reflects the attractiveness of the region and planned growth in the City of Greater Geelong’s Armstrong Creek urban growth area. Although not mentioned above, Colac-Otway is expected to have marginal growth, while Queenscliff is not expected to grow significantly from its current population.
An Ageing Population
An important feature of the projected population growth is the anticipated ageing of the population, with the region expected to have a significantly older population than the Victorian and Australian average. The G21 region’s population over 65 is expected to make up 26.9% in 2031, compared with:
- Victoria - 23.8%
- Australia – 21.3%.
Between 2006 and 2026, the number of people in the G21 region aged 60 and over is projected to nearly double, from 55,113 in 2006 to 99,787 in 2026.
This will mean that by 2026 it is expected that:
- those aged 60+ will rise to 28.1% (up from 20.4% in 2006)
- those aged 0 to 19 will increase by 15,453 persons (from 71,641 in 2006 to 87,094 in 2026). Nevertheless, it is projected that there will be a slight decrease in the proportion of 0 to 19 year olds between 2006 and 2026, from 26.5% of the population down to 24.5%.
- those aged 20 to 59, will increase by 25,162 (from 143,234 in 2006 to 168,396 in 2026). Nevertheless, the percentage of the population in this age cohort will drop from 53.0% in 2006 to 47.4% in 2026.
Regional Economic Output
Estimated total output for the G21 region in 2009 was $27.7 billion. Output refers to gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in the region. The largest contributing sectors are:
The top seven industries in the G21 region, by share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are manufacturing, retail trade, health care and social services, construction, education and training, accommodation and food services and public administration and safety.
Over 26% of all industry employment in the G21 region is in the retail and manufacturing industries.
High growth industry sectors contributing 19.5% of output, 29.6% of Gross Regional Product (GRP) and 31.8% of direct jobs include:
Medium growth industry sectors contributing 17.7% of output, 16.4% of GRP and 19.1% of direct jobs include:
Major Businesses (employers)
Avalon Airport - (All Activities) (1,280)
Ford Motor Company of Australia Ltd (1,251)
Alcoa World Alumina Australia (Victoria Operations) (610)
Golden Farms (Turi Foods) (496)
Godfrey Hirst (470)
Health & Social Services
Barwon Health (3,602)
Transport Accident Commission (TAC) (752)
Department of Human Services (713)
Karingal Inc (693)
St Laurence Community Services Victoria (384)
Public Administration & Safety
City of Greater Geelong (1,446)
Barwon Water (407)
Victoria Police (389)*
Barwon Prison (340)
Australia Post (257)
* Organisation numbers at June 2011
Retail & Wholesale Trade
Cotton On (578)
Coles Supermarkets (372)
Rex Gorell (310)
Professional & Technical Services
G-Force Recruitment (561)
Skilled Group (170)
Geelong Football Club (147)
Geelong Advertiser (141)
Education & Research
Department of Education (2,398)
Deakin University (1,595)
Catholic Education System (927)
Gordon Institute of TAFE (580)
CSIRO Australian Animal Health Laboratory (235)
Transport & Construction
Kempe International (313)
Gordon McKay (145)
Wettenhalls Transport (143)
Benders Busways (118)
McColls Transport (93)